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Wie wird der Islam in Deutschland 2030 aussehen? « JurBlog.de

Wie wird der Islam in Deutschland 2030 aussehen?

22. August 2006 | Von E. S. | Kategorie: Leitartikel | Ein Kommentar | Artikel versenden


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Über ein halbes Jahr lang haben mehr als 30 Studenten der Universität Tübingen an einem Seminar des Religionswissenschaftlers Michael Blume teilgenommen und in einem mehrstufigen Prozess gemeinsam eine Prognose über den Islam in Deutschland 2030 erarbeitet. Die Teilnehmer entstammten nicht nur verschiedensten Fachrichtungen, sondern auch Konfessionen…

So weist das Seminar u.a. darauf hin, dass die Zahl der Muslime vor allem durch Geburten im Inland weiter wachsen wird und im Jahr 2030 knapp zehn Prozent der deutschen Bevölkerung umfassen wird, in einigen westdeutschen Städten ein Drittel. Mehr als zwei Drittel der Muslime in Deutschland werden dann deutsche Staatsangehörige sein.

Diskriminierungen gegen den Islam haben, so der Bericht, dabei gar nicht immer die erhoffte Wirkung. So erhöhe die Verdrängung von „konservativen“ islamischen Frauen aus dem öffentlichen Leben nur die Kinderzahl und die Ausgrenzung islamischer Männer deren Engagement in der Privatwirtschaft. Das Seminar verweist hierzu auf entsprechende religionshistorische Erfahrungen etwa der Juden, Freikirchen oder Sikhs.

Zwar wird die Zuwanderung nach Deutschland insgesamt nachlassen, aber andererseits zeichnet sich schon heute ab, dass um 2030 weltweit fast nur noch die arabischen und afrikanischen Völker Bevölkerungswachstum verzeichnen. Wer also günstige Arbeitskräfte sucht (und das alternde Europa wird dies laut Prognose tun) wird auch in Zukunft auch Muslime aufnehmen müssen, so die Forscher.

Es wird sich, so die Prognose, neben einer auch muslimisch-säkularen Oberschicht in den Städten ein islamischer, familienorientierter Mittelstand mit Wohneigentum in den Neubaugebieten entwickeln. Aber es wird auch Stadtteile geben, in denen sich gescheiterte Aufstiegshoffnungen zu Frustrationen verdichten.

Besondere Dynamik erwartet das Seminar im deutsch-islamischen Medien-, Kultur- und Privatwirtschaftsbereich, skeptischer sieht es die Entwicklung der islamischen Verbände und der politischen Kompetenz. …

Quelle: Islam.de

Ekrem Senol - Köln, 22.08.2006

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  1. [...] “So weist das Seminar u.a. darauf hin, dass die Zahl der Muslime vor allem durch Geburten im Inland weiter wachsen wird und im Jahr 2030 knapp zehn Prozent der deutschen Bevölkerung umfassen wird, in einigen westdeutschen Städten ein Drittel. Mehr als zwei Drittel der Muslime in Deutschland werden dann deutsche Staatsangehörige sein. “//jurblog [...]

 

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