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Wahlergebnisse Bayern 2008 - Meine Prognose « JurBlog.de

Wahlergebnisse Bayern 2008 - Meine Prognose

27. September 2008 | Von E. S. | Kategorie: Politik | 5 Kommentare | Artikel versenden


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Einen Tag vor den Landtagswahlen 2008 in Bayern möchte ich kurz eine Prognose zu den Wahlergebnissen abgeben:

  • CSU: 44 %
  • SPD: 22 %
  • Grüne: 11 %
  • Linke: 6 %
  • FDP: 6 %
  • Frei Wähler: 7 %
  • Sonstige: 4 %

Ich denke/hoffe, dass die CSU eine historische Schlappe hinnehmen wird. Ihr bisher niedrigstes Wahlergebnis datiert aus dem Jahre 1994 mit 52,8 %. Kommen die Wahlergebnisse meiner Prognose nahe, wird auch die absolute Mehrheit - trotz einer Koalition mit der FDP - schwanken.

Auf die Ergebnisse können wir auf jeden Fall gespannt sein. Ein spannendes Wahlwochenende steht bevor. Wünschenswert wäre es sicherlich, wenn die CSU unter meiner Prognose bliebe als Dank für die immer wiederkehrende Ausgrenzungspolitik.

Wenn die Wahlergebnisse 2008 in Bayern vorliegen, werde ich ein Fazit zwischen den Wahlergebnissen 2008 in Bayern und meiner Prognose ziehen.

Ein Paar Gründe für meine ablehnende Haltung der CSU gegenüber:

UPDATE 28.09.2008 18:00 Uhr - Die ersten Hochrechnungen:

  • CSU: 43 % (- 17,7 %) (Abweichung von meiner Prognose - 1 %)
  • SPD: 19 % (- 0,6 %) (- 3 %)
  • Grüne: 9,5 % (+ 1,8 %) (- 1,5 %)
  • Linke: 4,5 % (+ 4,5 %) (- 1,5 %)
  • FDP: 8 % (+ 5,4 %) (+2 %)
  • Frei Wähler: 10,5 % (+ 6,5 %) (+ 3,5 %)
  • Sonstige: 5,5 % (+ 1,5 %)

Mein Wunsch, die CSU möge möglichst viele Stimmen verlieren, hat sich erfüllt. Die absolute Mehrheit der CSU ist verloren. Bayern wird erstmalig demokratisch werden - eine Koalition ist unausweichlich. Prost!

UPDATE Vorläufige amtliche Endergebnisse:

  • CSU: 43,4 % (- 17,3 %)
  • SPD: 18,6 % (- 1 %)
  • Grüne: 9,4 % (+ 1,7 %)
  • Linke: 4,3 % (+ 4,3 %)
  • FDP: 8 % (+ 5,4 %)
  • Frei Wähler: 10,2 % (+ 6,2 %)
  • Sonstige: 6,1 % (+ 0,7 %)

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5 Kommentare
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  1. Gute Prognose!!!
    Weit genauer als die von RTL Nachtjournal ;-)
    Bin ganz Deiner Meinung…
    lg Simon

  2. @ Simon:

    Ich bin selbst über meine Treffsicherheit überrascht. Insbesondere bei der CSU habe ich ja eine Punktlandung hingelegt. :) Gestern noch warnte mich ein Freund, nicht zu sehr in Wunschdenken zu versinken.

  3. Alle Achtung. Da bin ich froh, dass ich in keiner CSU Zentrale ware bei der Ergebnisverkündung. Bei so vielen langen Gesichtern.

  4. Es ist klasse zu sehen , das die Bevölkerung in Bayern , endlich mal auf Ihre populistischen Politiker reagiert hat.
    Die Damen und Herren sollte doch Politik für das Volk machen und nicht immer wieder mit Medienwirksamen erscheinungen in der Öffentlichkeit auftauchen.
    Ich hoffe nur , das die Politiker in Bayern auch diese Ohrfeige verstehen.

  5. Ja sie haben verstanden,wir können uns auf noch mehr populistischen Kram freuen.Die besten CSU Politiker waren alle ausgezeichnete Populisten.

 

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